ACT
Reading notes (Tanzer)

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Nsoeslie et. al, A simulation optimization approach to epidemic forecasting

• Elaine O. Nsoeslie, Richard H. Beckman, Sara Shashaani, Kalyani S. Nagaraj, and Madhav V. Marathe, A simulation optimization approach to epidemic forecasting, PLOS, June 27, 2013.

Model parameters:

• Transmissibility - rate at which disease propagates through population - e.g. 6 E-5 per sec/unit of contact time

• Incubation period - duration between infection and onset of symptoms - e.g. 0:0.0 1:0.3 2:0.5 3:0.2

• Infectious period - period during which infected persons can shed the virus - e.g. 2:0.0 3:0.3 4:0.4 5:0.2 6:0.1

General epidemiology

• SEIR: Susceptible - Exposed - Infectious - Recovered

• SEIRD: Susceptible - Exposed - Infectious - Recovered / Dead